International Equities – The New Market Leaders?

Even though international equity markets posted another disappointing year in both absolute and relative terms compared to the U.S. market, they actually outperformed the U.S. over the last half of 2018.

In our last white paper “Why Invest Internationally Now” [June 2018], our main themes included the historic gap in relative performance and valuations and the potential for ‘reversion to the mean’. This piece addresses the latest question from investors:

Did we miss the opportunity to increase exposure to international markets?

We were asked recently whether the recent outperformance suggested that international markets had finally turned and were the place to be in 2019. If only it were so easy. We believe the historically-large valuation discrepancy likely
muted the downside impact to international markets during the recent spike in volatility. However, one quarter of relative outperformance has not erased a performance gap that has been years in the making.

In this latest white paper from the Buffalo Funds, we discuss the following concepts:

  • Market timing in the shorter term is nearly impossible, but…
  • Long-term performance (5+ years) can be improved using certain models.
  • The Shiller CAPE ratio has proven a decent predictor of long-term future market returns.
  • Why we should care about these models?

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it’s a weighing machine.”
— Benjamin Graham,
noted value investor

Download our latest paper to discover why we continue to believe international markets are poised for better relative performance over the longer term.

Opinions expressed are those of the author or Funds and are subject to change, are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Fundamental Approach

We get to know the companies we invest in and learn how they run their business.

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We identify Top-Down broad, secular growth trends and search for companies from the Bottom-Up.

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